MistaFlava's US Open Record: 25-4 (+20.40 Units)
Here is how I went 25-4 the first two days of this tournament. Using a system that went 21-4 in New Haven last week (regardless of odd value it picked dogs and favs), I have no choice but to make the following plays. This system evaluates players abilities on a certain surface and this system also evaluates players recent achievements and capabilities on this surface. Enjoy. I wish I had used this system instead of losing money all week but ah well, thats how it goes. The breakdown for New Haven was as follows:
ATP New Haven
Round of 48: 5-1
Round of 32: 12-0
Round of 16: 2-2
Quarter-Finals: 2-0
Semi-Finals: 0-1
Final: No Plays
21-4 last week using this system
Tueday, August 28
Frank Dancevic 2.38 over Marat Safin (5 units)
The time has come. I am not on this match because of my homerism towards Frank Dancevic. I am on this match because my next to near perfect system has picked him to win this match and the system is 2-0 picking underdogs so far in this tournament. It was also next to perfect last week in New Haven. Frank comes into this tournament with his highest ranking of all time at #68 in the world (well okay he was #67 a few weeks back). I know to many of you Marat Safin looks like the ideal bet right here at this price because he has had success in past US Open tournaments and taking him at this price would be ideal for you. Well consider that Marat has not played all that well in the US Open series warmup events. He lost to Hyung-Taik Lee in Los Angeles, he lost to the out of form Gael Monfils in Washington the following week, he lost to Rafael Nadal in Montreal and then lost to Nicolas Kiefer in the opening round of the Cincinnati event the following week. Dancevic on the other hand has great athletic abilities that can really hamper Marat's style. The Canadian went on an outstanding two tournament run before the US Open reaching his first ever ATP Final (first for a Canadian in 10+ years) in Indianapolis and then pleasing the home crowd and reching the quarter-finals of TMS Montreal. He is playing the best tennis of his life, he is well rested after the qualies tournament and he is ready to take on the unstable Safin who is very prime for a beating in this one. Should be a great match and even greater making money off of this.
Mikhail Youzhny 1.08 over Nicolas Devilder (1 Unit)
Back down to the shitty odds we go for this one but I can't argue with the system hooking me up with a free unit here and there. Youzhny is by far the better player in this match and for those who don't like small odds, I don't think he will drop a set here and I would take him on the handicap for sure and maybe even on the sets betting. This Devilder character is another one of the clowns I had so much fun fading yesterday when I bet against the players who were only here to pick up their first round money paycheck and get the hell out of Flushing Meadows. Devilder has played in only 9 hardcourt matches over the last 12 months and has won only 2 of them (none in a main draw since September of 2006). Youzhny is definitely no stranger to these nice blue hardcourts as he was a surprise Semi-Finalist in last year's tournament before bowing out against Andy Roddick in a decent match we all knew he would end up losing. He has won his last three US Open first round matches by quite the easy margins and has not lost in this round since the 2003 tournament. Youzhny comes into this tournament with an impressive 17-8 run over the last year on hardcourts and most recently he got his game fine tuned on the courts of Cincinnati and Montreal. Sure he was bounced early in both tournaments but Youzhny is now well rested and is playing against a player who has no virtual experience on these courts. This should be a no contest all the way and I would be completely shocked if Youzhny somehow drops a set in this match. Bank on it guys, parlay it, handicap it and take it to the cashier for an easy slip.
Michael Berrer 1.43 over Michal Przysiezny (3 Units)
You don't have to be a fan of this German lifetime floater but I am a fan of him making me some money in this round and I think this is one of the best wagers of the round. The young 23 year old Przysiezny from Poland comes into this tournament as a virtual unknown to many. He looked alright in the qualifying tournament but none of his wins came against decent opponents as he managed to dispose of the #127, #207 and #204 ranked players in the world which in no way will have him prepared to take on Berrer who is ranked #84. Either way prior to the qualifying tournament for the main draw, Michal Przysiezny had played in only 10 hardcourt tournaments over the last year or so and he had won only four of those matches. His biggest lifetime win on this surface (he has only played in 24 career hardcourt matches) was one of his qualifying wins over the #127 player in the world. That was it. Now that we move things to a BEST OF FIVE SET MATCH, Berrer has the big advantage because he has played on these courts before and he almost beat a TOP 10 opponent in David Nalbandian last year in the first round of this tournament. Berrer has not played since the Washington tournament about a month ago but he beat some really decent opponents in that tournament and also showed well in Indianapolis and Los Angeles. Michal Przysiezny has played for Poland in best of five set matches but this being his first grand slam experience, I don't think his nerves will allow him to ever get involved the way he wants to in this match. Berrer is just too strong and too consistent to let anything bad happen and the price is just too juicy to resist here.
Philipp Kohlschreiber 1.27 over Mariano Zabaleta (1 Unit)
I don't know where these two assclowns have been the past year or so because I know I have not bet much money on or against either player but the bottom line here is that Zabaleta was at the top of his game (all surfaces included) back in 2003 and just doesn't have what it takes to compete against the young German. I am laughing a little bit when I say this but Zabaleta comes into this match having not touched the hardcourts once since the end of the clay season. His last tournament played was in Sopot on the clay courts and for those already wondering if he is just another one of those infamous ass clowns I keep talking about that are here just to collect some first round money paychecks...he actually is. Zabaleta has played on hardcourts just one fuckin time over the last 12 months and that was a loss to Thiago Alves in last year's opening round of the US Open. So once again he is here to collect some cash, keep this match short and head back home with some $17 000 USD for his family to enjoy. Lucky guy. Kohlschreiber has not been in ideal hardcourt shape over the last 12 months as he has won only 5 of his 15 matches on this surface but his win in Cincinnati over Calleri was enough to tell me that he has a bit of game left in him to win this match without many problems. Kohli has lost his first round match at the US Open for two straight years now but I think this is his best chance yet to show that he can still beat very mediocre opponents. Give me the German assassin at this price.
Dmitry Tursunov 1.22 over Tim Henman (1 Unit)
If there is one guy in tennis who has screwed me quite a few times with his choking abilities the past year or so it has been Tursunov but that doesn't mean the spot is not very good to back him here. Cmon guys...lets get real about Tim Henman. He is finished, he has announced his retirement and everything from here on in will be going through the motions of tennis and hoping to stay healthy enough to enjoy his retirement. Mentally I really don't think he stands a chance of making it anywhere in this tournament because like I said before, he has already packed things in for his career. Tursunov on the other hand is going to take advantage of the slower Henman. The Russian Assassin has a current 5-1 lead in their six career head-to-head meetings and it is worth noting that his only loss to the old man was in England on grass and we are nowhere near England and the only grass in sight is the one sitting next to me on this desk. Dima has been very good to many on the hardcourts the last year or so as he is an impressive 17-9 in 26 hardcourt matches since the US Open last year and I have to admit that I am a huge fan of the fact that Tursunov is 4-0 in four career first round matches at the US Open. The crowd might back Henman just a little bit but it won't matter because their games are on totally different levels right now. Henman did beat fellow retirement home junky Greg Rusedski here last year but that will be his last US Open win. He is just too old to compete and I think the fact that he is 0-5 in his last five hardcourt matches dating back to February of this year, is a very good indication of what he can do in this match. See ya old man you IDIOTA!
Fernando Gonzalez 1.14 over Teimuraz Gabashvili (1 Unit)
Ah yes some more shitty odds to work with here and possibly fall asleep watching these matches. I mean I don't even have to consult stats to know that Gabashvili is not about to come to Flushing Meadows and take a match away from the free flowing Gonzalez. That would be next to impossible and I would even suggest that these odds are a bit generous in Gabash's favor. I actually cannot call Gabashvili another one of those assclowns who is here to collect some free first round money because I don't think he is and I don't think he is going to go quietly. This is a player who has played in 32 hardcourt matches over the last 12 months and who has somehow managed to win matches against guys like Kristof Vliegen. You also have to keep in mind that Gabash did win his first round match here in 2006 but that was against some chump ranked near the bottom of the TOP 100 and I don't think the opponents are comparable this time around. Gonzalez is one of the players you can trust the least these days because of fitness concerns but he seems to always find ways to win at least two matches at the US Open every year, something he has now done in 4 of his last 5 US Open tournaments. Gonzalez took some much needed rest after his opening round loss in TMS Cincinati and I think the rest is going to do him some good and we are going to see a different Gonzo with a lot more energy in this match. The odds suck but Gonzo doesn't and he won't let you guys down.
John Isner 1.31 over Rick de Voest (1 Unit)
I have a feeling everyone is going to jump on the John Isner train right after this match ends and that is why I want to start the party by betting on him at these pretty damn good odds. Isner pulled off the biggest shocker of the first round when he overwhelmed a very good Jarkko Nieminen and has now caught the attention of everyone watching this tournament. He is very very tall, can serve pretty damn well and is going to be a very well seasoned ATP player once he gets all his tools going. de Voest comes into this match off his first round win over Thierry Ascione but beating that lazy piece of shit frenchman is basically like beating a guy who was randomly picked from the crowd and designed as a one time opponent. de Voest has not played in a main ATP hardcourt even since way back in March when he was in the qualifying tournament for the TMS Miami event but that's about it. Isner is an up and coming player that is going to gain a lot of respect in this tournament. His win over Nieminen was very impressive considering the way he held his nerve and the way he showed Nieminen what the monster serve is all about. For those who don't already know, Isner is a newcomer but has already reached an ATP tournament final in Washington a few months back and he has shown many times now that he is ready for primetime. This match is going to be played much later at night which is another perfect opportunity for the tournament to showcase some young American stars like Isner. There is no way he won that first round match only to come here and lose. Enjoy the big win by the even bigger man.
RECAP:
Frank Dancevic 2.38 over Marat Safin
Mikhail Youzhny 1.08 over Nicolas Devilder
Michael Berrer 1.43 over Michal Przysiezny
Philipp Kohlschreiber 1.27 over Mariano Zabaleta
Dmitry Tursunov 1.22 over Tim Henman
Fernando Gonzalez 1.14 over Teimuraz Gabashvili
John Isner 1.31 over Rick de Voest
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Here is how I went 25-4 the first two days of this tournament. Using a system that went 21-4 in New Haven last week (regardless of odd value it picked dogs and favs), I have no choice but to make the following plays. This system evaluates players abilities on a certain surface and this system also evaluates players recent achievements and capabilities on this surface. Enjoy. I wish I had used this system instead of losing money all week but ah well, thats how it goes. The breakdown for New Haven was as follows:
ATP New Haven
Round of 48: 5-1
Round of 32: 12-0
Round of 16: 2-2
Quarter-Finals: 2-0
Semi-Finals: 0-1
Final: No Plays
21-4 last week using this system
Tueday, August 28
Frank Dancevic 2.38 over Marat Safin (5 units)
The time has come. I am not on this match because of my homerism towards Frank Dancevic. I am on this match because my next to near perfect system has picked him to win this match and the system is 2-0 picking underdogs so far in this tournament. It was also next to perfect last week in New Haven. Frank comes into this tournament with his highest ranking of all time at #68 in the world (well okay he was #67 a few weeks back). I know to many of you Marat Safin looks like the ideal bet right here at this price because he has had success in past US Open tournaments and taking him at this price would be ideal for you. Well consider that Marat has not played all that well in the US Open series warmup events. He lost to Hyung-Taik Lee in Los Angeles, he lost to the out of form Gael Monfils in Washington the following week, he lost to Rafael Nadal in Montreal and then lost to Nicolas Kiefer in the opening round of the Cincinnati event the following week. Dancevic on the other hand has great athletic abilities that can really hamper Marat's style. The Canadian went on an outstanding two tournament run before the US Open reaching his first ever ATP Final (first for a Canadian in 10+ years) in Indianapolis and then pleasing the home crowd and reching the quarter-finals of TMS Montreal. He is playing the best tennis of his life, he is well rested after the qualies tournament and he is ready to take on the unstable Safin who is very prime for a beating in this one. Should be a great match and even greater making money off of this.
Mikhail Youzhny 1.08 over Nicolas Devilder (1 Unit)
Back down to the shitty odds we go for this one but I can't argue with the system hooking me up with a free unit here and there. Youzhny is by far the better player in this match and for those who don't like small odds, I don't think he will drop a set here and I would take him on the handicap for sure and maybe even on the sets betting. This Devilder character is another one of the clowns I had so much fun fading yesterday when I bet against the players who were only here to pick up their first round money paycheck and get the hell out of Flushing Meadows. Devilder has played in only 9 hardcourt matches over the last 12 months and has won only 2 of them (none in a main draw since September of 2006). Youzhny is definitely no stranger to these nice blue hardcourts as he was a surprise Semi-Finalist in last year's tournament before bowing out against Andy Roddick in a decent match we all knew he would end up losing. He has won his last three US Open first round matches by quite the easy margins and has not lost in this round since the 2003 tournament. Youzhny comes into this tournament with an impressive 17-8 run over the last year on hardcourts and most recently he got his game fine tuned on the courts of Cincinnati and Montreal. Sure he was bounced early in both tournaments but Youzhny is now well rested and is playing against a player who has no virtual experience on these courts. This should be a no contest all the way and I would be completely shocked if Youzhny somehow drops a set in this match. Bank on it guys, parlay it, handicap it and take it to the cashier for an easy slip.
Michael Berrer 1.43 over Michal Przysiezny (3 Units)
You don't have to be a fan of this German lifetime floater but I am a fan of him making me some money in this round and I think this is one of the best wagers of the round. The young 23 year old Przysiezny from Poland comes into this tournament as a virtual unknown to many. He looked alright in the qualifying tournament but none of his wins came against decent opponents as he managed to dispose of the #127, #207 and #204 ranked players in the world which in no way will have him prepared to take on Berrer who is ranked #84. Either way prior to the qualifying tournament for the main draw, Michal Przysiezny had played in only 10 hardcourt tournaments over the last year or so and he had won only four of those matches. His biggest lifetime win on this surface (he has only played in 24 career hardcourt matches) was one of his qualifying wins over the #127 player in the world. That was it. Now that we move things to a BEST OF FIVE SET MATCH, Berrer has the big advantage because he has played on these courts before and he almost beat a TOP 10 opponent in David Nalbandian last year in the first round of this tournament. Berrer has not played since the Washington tournament about a month ago but he beat some really decent opponents in that tournament and also showed well in Indianapolis and Los Angeles. Michal Przysiezny has played for Poland in best of five set matches but this being his first grand slam experience, I don't think his nerves will allow him to ever get involved the way he wants to in this match. Berrer is just too strong and too consistent to let anything bad happen and the price is just too juicy to resist here.
Philipp Kohlschreiber 1.27 over Mariano Zabaleta (1 Unit)
I don't know where these two assclowns have been the past year or so because I know I have not bet much money on or against either player but the bottom line here is that Zabaleta was at the top of his game (all surfaces included) back in 2003 and just doesn't have what it takes to compete against the young German. I am laughing a little bit when I say this but Zabaleta comes into this match having not touched the hardcourts once since the end of the clay season. His last tournament played was in Sopot on the clay courts and for those already wondering if he is just another one of those infamous ass clowns I keep talking about that are here just to collect some first round money paychecks...he actually is. Zabaleta has played on hardcourts just one fuckin time over the last 12 months and that was a loss to Thiago Alves in last year's opening round of the US Open. So once again he is here to collect some cash, keep this match short and head back home with some $17 000 USD for his family to enjoy. Lucky guy. Kohlschreiber has not been in ideal hardcourt shape over the last 12 months as he has won only 5 of his 15 matches on this surface but his win in Cincinnati over Calleri was enough to tell me that he has a bit of game left in him to win this match without many problems. Kohli has lost his first round match at the US Open for two straight years now but I think this is his best chance yet to show that he can still beat very mediocre opponents. Give me the German assassin at this price.
Dmitry Tursunov 1.22 over Tim Henman (1 Unit)
If there is one guy in tennis who has screwed me quite a few times with his choking abilities the past year or so it has been Tursunov but that doesn't mean the spot is not very good to back him here. Cmon guys...lets get real about Tim Henman. He is finished, he has announced his retirement and everything from here on in will be going through the motions of tennis and hoping to stay healthy enough to enjoy his retirement. Mentally I really don't think he stands a chance of making it anywhere in this tournament because like I said before, he has already packed things in for his career. Tursunov on the other hand is going to take advantage of the slower Henman. The Russian Assassin has a current 5-1 lead in their six career head-to-head meetings and it is worth noting that his only loss to the old man was in England on grass and we are nowhere near England and the only grass in sight is the one sitting next to me on this desk. Dima has been very good to many on the hardcourts the last year or so as he is an impressive 17-9 in 26 hardcourt matches since the US Open last year and I have to admit that I am a huge fan of the fact that Tursunov is 4-0 in four career first round matches at the US Open. The crowd might back Henman just a little bit but it won't matter because their games are on totally different levels right now. Henman did beat fellow retirement home junky Greg Rusedski here last year but that will be his last US Open win. He is just too old to compete and I think the fact that he is 0-5 in his last five hardcourt matches dating back to February of this year, is a very good indication of what he can do in this match. See ya old man you IDIOTA!
Fernando Gonzalez 1.14 over Teimuraz Gabashvili (1 Unit)
Ah yes some more shitty odds to work with here and possibly fall asleep watching these matches. I mean I don't even have to consult stats to know that Gabashvili is not about to come to Flushing Meadows and take a match away from the free flowing Gonzalez. That would be next to impossible and I would even suggest that these odds are a bit generous in Gabash's favor. I actually cannot call Gabashvili another one of those assclowns who is here to collect some free first round money because I don't think he is and I don't think he is going to go quietly. This is a player who has played in 32 hardcourt matches over the last 12 months and who has somehow managed to win matches against guys like Kristof Vliegen. You also have to keep in mind that Gabash did win his first round match here in 2006 but that was against some chump ranked near the bottom of the TOP 100 and I don't think the opponents are comparable this time around. Gonzalez is one of the players you can trust the least these days because of fitness concerns but he seems to always find ways to win at least two matches at the US Open every year, something he has now done in 4 of his last 5 US Open tournaments. Gonzalez took some much needed rest after his opening round loss in TMS Cincinati and I think the rest is going to do him some good and we are going to see a different Gonzo with a lot more energy in this match. The odds suck but Gonzo doesn't and he won't let you guys down.
John Isner 1.31 over Rick de Voest (1 Unit)
I have a feeling everyone is going to jump on the John Isner train right after this match ends and that is why I want to start the party by betting on him at these pretty damn good odds. Isner pulled off the biggest shocker of the first round when he overwhelmed a very good Jarkko Nieminen and has now caught the attention of everyone watching this tournament. He is very very tall, can serve pretty damn well and is going to be a very well seasoned ATP player once he gets all his tools going. de Voest comes into this match off his first round win over Thierry Ascione but beating that lazy piece of shit frenchman is basically like beating a guy who was randomly picked from the crowd and designed as a one time opponent. de Voest has not played in a main ATP hardcourt even since way back in March when he was in the qualifying tournament for the TMS Miami event but that's about it. Isner is an up and coming player that is going to gain a lot of respect in this tournament. His win over Nieminen was very impressive considering the way he held his nerve and the way he showed Nieminen what the monster serve is all about. For those who don't already know, Isner is a newcomer but has already reached an ATP tournament final in Washington a few months back and he has shown many times now that he is ready for primetime. This match is going to be played much later at night which is another perfect opportunity for the tournament to showcase some young American stars like Isner. There is no way he won that first round match only to come here and lose. Enjoy the big win by the even bigger man.
RECAP:
Frank Dancevic 2.38 over Marat Safin
Mikhail Youzhny 1.08 over Nicolas Devilder
Michael Berrer 1.43 over Michal Przysiezny
Philipp Kohlschreiber 1.27 over Mariano Zabaleta
Dmitry Tursunov 1.22 over Tim Henman
Fernando Gonzalez 1.14 over Teimuraz Gabashvili
John Isner 1.31 over Rick de Voest
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